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Marseille 2–0 Toulouse: our model backed Marseille (correct)

Marseille
Ligue 1Full time · 90 minutes2–0Stade Vélodrome, Marseille
Toulouse
CorrectLocked d963307ccf02

Prediction outcome

Result pick correct

We predicted Marseille win (55%). Final score 2–0.

Exact score not matched

Most likely score 1-1, actual 2-0. The most likely Marseille win is 2-1 (10%). A win is spread over many scores (1-0, 2-1, 2-0…), a draw over a few, so the single top score can be a draw even when a win is the pick. Exact scores land about one time in eight, so this is shown for reference.

Over 2.5 goals: no

We gave over 2.5 a 61% chance; the match had 2 goals.

Both teams scored: no

We gave both teams to score a 61% chance.

RPS for this match0.125Lower is better · running average 0.193Track record

Original forecast

Locked before kickoff ·
Marseille55%Pick · Home win
Draw24%Draw
Toulouse21%Away win

90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.

Predicted most likely score1 – 1
Actual result2 – 0

Timeline

  1. Forecast lockedSaved and hashed 9 hours 37 min before kickoff (our standard is 24 hours; this forecast was locked later).
  2. Match completedFull time, 90 minutes: 2–0.
  3. Result verifiedConfirmed by two sources, then graded.

What happened vs what we expected

We made Marseille the pick at 55% to win. That pick was correct. The most likely score in our grid was 1-1; the actual 2-0 had a 8.1% chance. This match scored an RPS of 0.125, better than our running average of 0.193 (lower is better).

Generated automatically from the graded result and the locked forecast · graded

Pre-match analysis (unchanged)

Our model gives Marseille a 55% chance of beating Toulouse at Stade Vélodrome, with the draw at 24% and Toulouse at 21%. The single most likely score is 1-1 (11%); the most likely Marseille win is 2-1. Medium confidence.

Model panel

ModelMarseilleDrawToulouseLikely score
Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles54.6%24.2%21.2%1-1
Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model54.6%24.2%21.2%1-1

Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.

How we grade each model

Recent form

Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.

Marseille6th · 15 pts from 9 · 7 days' rest

  1. Lost 0–1 v Stade Rennais (away), 11 Sep
  2. Lost 1–2 v Paris Saint-Germain (home), 20 Sep
  3. Won 2–0 v Troyes (away), 11 Oct
  4. Won 5–2 v Angers (away), 18 Oct
  5. Won 4–3 v Le Havre AC (home), 25 Oct

Last 5 league matches, latest on the right

  1. Won 2–0 v Troyes (away), 11 Oct, Ligue 1
  2. Lost 0–1 v Olympiacos (home), 15 Oct, UEFA Europa League
  3. Won 5–2 v Angers (away), 18 Oct, Ligue 1
  4. Lost 0–1 v SK Sturm Graz (away), 22 Oct, UEFA Europa League
  5. Won 4–3 v Le Havre AC (home), 25 Oct, Ligue 1

Last 5 in all competitions, including cups

Rest counted from Ligue 1 v Le Havre AC, 25 Oct

Toulouse12th · 10 pts from 9 · 7 days' rest

  1. Drew 2–2 v Lorient (away), 12 Sep
  2. Won 3–2 v Le Havre AC (home), 19 Sep
  3. Drew 2–2 v AS Monaco (away), 10 Oct
  4. Won 3–0 v Le Mans (away), 16 Oct
  5. Drew 0–0 v Troyes (home), 25 Oct

Last 5 league matches, latest on the right

Rest counted from Ligue 1 v Troyes, 25 Oct

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings in all competitions, latest first. Cup scores include extra time. Meetings in divisions we do not cover are not included.

DateHomeScoreAway
7 Mar 2026Toulouse0 – 1Marseille
4 Mar 2026Coupe de FranceMarseille2 – 23–4 pensToulouse
29 Nov 2025Marseille2 – 2Toulouse
6 Apr 2025Marseille3 – 2Toulouse
31 Aug 2024Toulouse1 – 3Marseille
Full head-to-head record

FAQ

What was the result of Marseille vs Toulouse?

Marseille 2–0 Toulouse after 90 minutes.

Did the AI predict Marseille vs Toulouse correctly?

Yes. Our locked forecast made Marseille the pick at 55%.

What score did the model expect?

The single most likely score was 1-1 (11%). The actual 2-0 had a 8.1% chance in the same grid.

How is this forecast graded?

On the 90-minute result with the Ranked Probability Score (RPS), where lower is better. This match scored 0.125.

Was the forecast changed after kickoff?

No. It was locked at 1 Nov 2026 10:08 UTC with sha256 d963307ccf02 and is published in our public ledger.

For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling