Lyon 2–0 Angers: our model backed Lyon (correct)
d3dc438112cbPrediction outcome
Result pick correct
We predicted Lyon win (67%). Final score 2–0.
Exact score matched
Most likely score 2-0, actual 2-0. Exact scores land about one time in eight, so this is shown for reference.
Over 2.5 goals: no
We gave over 2.5 a 52% chance; the match had 2 goals.
Both teams scored: no
We gave both teams to score a 47% chance.
RPS for this match0.062Lower is better · running average 0.193Track record
Original forecast
Locked before kickoff ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Timeline
- Forecast lockedSaved and hashed 6 hours 7 min before kickoff (our standard is 24 hours; this forecast was locked later).
- Match completedFull time, 90 minutes: 2–0.
- Result verifiedConfirmed by two sources, then graded.
What happened vs what we expected
We made Lyon the pick at 67% to win. That pick was correct. The most likely score in our grid was 2-0; the actual 2-0 had a 12.8% chance. This match scored an RPS of 0.062, better than our running average of 0.193 (lower is better).
Pre-match analysis (unchanged)
Our model gives Lyon a 67% chance of beating Angers at Groupama Stadium, with the draw at 21% and Angers at 12%. The most likely score is 2-0 (13%). High confidence.
Model panel
| Model | Lyon | Draw | Angers | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 66.9% | 21.3% | 11.8% | 2-0 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 66.9% | 21.3% | 11.8% | 2-0 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelRecent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
Lyon3rd · 17 pts from 9 · 6 days' rest
- Drew 0–0 v Paris FC (away), 12 Sep
- Won 4–0 v Stade Rennais (home), 19 Sep
- Lost 1–2 v Lens (away), 9 Oct
- Won 2–1 v Nice (home), 18 Oct
- Lost 0–2 v Paris Saint-Germain (away), 26 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Lost 1–2 v Lens (away), 9 Oct, Ligue 1
- Won 3–2 v Crystal Palace (home), 15 Oct, UEFA Europa League
- Won 2–1 v Nice (home), 18 Oct, Ligue 1
- Lost 0–3 v TSG Hoffenheim (away), 22 Oct, UEFA Europa League
- Lost 0–2 v Paris Saint-Germain (away), 26 Oct, Ligue 1
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Ligue 1 v Paris Saint-Germain, 26 Oct
Angers15th · 8 pts from 9 · 7 days' rest
- Drew 0–0 v Le Havre AC (away), 12 Sep
- Won 2–0 v Troyes (home), 19 Sep
- Lost 1–5 v Brest (away), 10 Oct
- Lost 2–5 v Marseille (home), 18 Oct
- Drew 0–0 v Lorient (home), 25 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
Rest counted from Ligue 1 v Lorient, 25 Oct
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings, latest first. Meetings in divisions we do not cover are not included.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Apr 2026 | Angers | 0 – 0 | Lyon |
| 19 Sep 2025 | Lyon | 1 – 0 | Angers |
| 17 May 2025 | Lyon | 2 – 0 | Angers |
| 7 Dec 2024 | Angers | 0 – 3 | Lyon |
| 25 Feb 2023 | Angers | 1 – 3 | Lyon |
FAQ
What was the result of Lyon vs Angers?
Lyon 2–0 Angers after 90 minutes.
Did the AI predict Lyon vs Angers correctly?
Yes. Our locked forecast made Lyon the pick at 67%.
What score did the model expect?
The single most likely score was 2-0 (13%). The actual 2-0 had a 12.8% chance in the same grid.
How is this forecast graded?
On the 90-minute result with the Ranked Probability Score (RPS), where lower is better. This match scored 0.062.
Was the forecast changed after kickoff?
No. It was locked at 1 Nov 2026 10:08 UTC with sha256 d3dc438112cb and is published in our public ledger.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling