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Arouca 1–0 Nacional: our model backed Arouca (correct)

Arouca
Primeira LigaFull time · 90 minutes1–0Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca
Nacional
CorrectLocked b3128a2fed42

Prediction outcome

Result pick correct

We predicted Arouca win (53%). Final score 1–0.

Exact score matched

Most likely score 1-0, actual 1-0. Exact scores land about one time in eight, so this is shown for reference.

Over 2.5 goals: no

We gave over 2.5 a 49% chance; the match had 1 goals.

Both teams scored: no

We gave both teams to score a 52% chance.

RPS for this match0.137Lower is better · running average 0.193Track record

Original forecast

Locked before kickoff ·
Arouca53%Pick · Home win
Draw24%Draw
Nacional23%Away win

90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.

Predicted most likely score1 – 0
Actual result1 – 0

Timeline

  1. Forecast lockedSaved and hashed 24 hours before kickoff.
  2. Match completedFull time, 90 minutes: 1–0.
  3. Result verifiedConfirmed by two sources, then graded.

What happened vs what we expected

We made Arouca the pick at 53% to win. That pick was correct. The most likely score in our grid was 1-0; the actual 1-0 had a 12.9% chance. This match scored an RPS of 0.137, better than our running average of 0.193 (lower is better).

Generated automatically from the graded result and the locked forecast · graded

Pre-match analysis (unchanged)

Our model gives Arouca a 53% chance of beating Nacional at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, with the draw at 24% and Nacional at 23%. The most likely score is 1-0 (13%). Medium confidence.

Model panel

ModelAroucaDrawNacionalLikely score
Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles52.8%24.5%22.7%1-0
Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model52.8%24.5%22.7%1-0

Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.

How we grade each model

Recent form

Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.

Arouca5th · 20 pts from 10 · 8 days' rest

  1. Drew 0–0 v Estoril Praia (away), 7 Sep
  2. Lost 1–2 v Santa Clara (home), 13 Sep
  3. Drew 2–2 v Sporting CP (away), 19 Sep
  4. Won 1–0 v Estrela da Amadora (home), 11 Oct
  5. Won 1–0 v Alverca (away), 24 Oct

Last 5 league matches, latest on the right

  1. Lost 1–2 v Santa Clara (home), 13 Sep, Primeira Liga
  2. Drew 2–2 v Sporting CP (away), 19 Sep, Primeira Liga
  3. Won 1–0 v Estrela da Amadora (home), 11 Oct, Primeira Liga
  4. Won 4–3 v Os Belenenses (away), 18 Oct, Taca de Portugal, after extra time
  5. Won 1–0 v Alverca (away), 24 Oct, Primeira Liga

Last 5 in all competitions, including cups

Rest counted from Primeira Liga v Alverca, 24 Oct

Nacional15th · 7 pts from 10 · 7 days' rest

  1. Lost 0–2 v Sporting CP (away), 5 Sep
  2. Lost 1–3 v Alverca (home), 12 Sep
  3. Lost 0–4 v Famalicão (home), 19 Sep
  4. Lost 2–3 v Rio Ave (away), 11 Oct
  5. Won 1–0 v Braga (home), 25 Oct

Last 5 league matches, latest on the right

  1. Lost 1–3 v Alverca (home), 12 Sep, Primeira Liga
  2. Lost 0–4 v Famalicão (home), 19 Sep, Primeira Liga
  3. Lost 2–3 v Rio Ave (away), 11 Oct, Primeira Liga
  4. Lost 0–1 v Sanjoanense (away), 17 Oct, Taca de Portugal
  5. Won 1–0 v Braga (home), 25 Oct, Primeira Liga

Last 5 in all competitions, including cups

Rest counted from Primeira Liga v Braga, 25 Oct

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings, latest first. Meetings in divisions we do not cover are not included.

DateHomeScoreAway
21 Feb 2026Arouca3 – 0Nacional
20 Sep 2025Nacional1 – 2Arouca
1 Feb 2025Nacional1 – 2Arouca
25 Aug 2024Arouca1 – 0Nacional
Full head-to-head record

FAQ

What was the result of Arouca vs Nacional?

Arouca 1–0 Nacional after 90 minutes.

Did the AI predict Arouca vs Nacional correctly?

Yes. Our locked forecast made Arouca the pick at 53%.

What score did the model expect?

The single most likely score was 1-0 (13%). The actual 1-0 had a 12.9% chance in the same grid.

How is this forecast graded?

On the 90-minute result with the Ranked Probability Score (RPS), where lower is better. This match scored 0.137.

Was the forecast changed after kickoff?

No. It was locked at 31 Oct 2026 16:24 UTC with sha256 b3128a2fed42 and is published in our public ledger.

For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling