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Marítimo 0–2 Santa Clara: AI backed Santa Clara (correct)

Marítimo
Primeira LigaFull time · 90 minutes0–2Estádio do Marítimo, Funchal
Santa Clara
CorrectLocked a0fabd53a5b4

Prediction outcome

Result pick correct

We predicted Santa Clara win (48%). Final score 0–2.

Exact score not matched

Most likely score 0-1, actual 0-2. Exact scores land about one time in eight, so this is shown for reference.

Over 2.5 goals: no

We gave over 2.5 a 42% chance; the match had 2 goals.

Both teams scored: no

We gave both teams to score a 46% chance.

RPS for this match0.167Lower is better · running average 0.193Track record

Original forecast

Locked before kickoff ·
Marítimo26%Home win
Draw26%Draw
Santa Clara48%Pick · Away win

90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.

Predicted most likely score0 – 1
Actual result0 – 2

Timeline

  1. Forecast lockedSaved and hashed 15 hours 27 min before kickoff (our standard is 24 hours; this forecast was locked later).
  2. Match completedFull time, 90 minutes: 0–2.
  3. Result verifiedConfirmed by two sources, then graded.

What happened vs what we expected

We made Santa Clara the pick at 48% to win. That pick was correct. The most likely score in our grid was 0-1; the actual 0-2 had a 9.3% chance. This match scored an RPS of 0.167, better than our running average of 0.193 (lower is better).

Generated automatically from the graded result and the locked forecast · graded

Pre-match analysis (unchanged)

Our model makes Santa Clara favourites at 48% away to Marítimo, with the draw at 26% and a Marítimo win at 26%. The most likely score is 0-1 (14%). Low confidence.

Model panel

ModelMarítimoDrawSanta ClaraLikely score
Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles25.7%26.1%48.2%0-1
ClaudeAI analyst · shadowAI analysts' view – not part of the published probability25.7%26.1%48.2%0-1
CodexAI analyst · shadowAI analysts' view – not part of the published probability25.7%26.1%48.2%0-1
Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model25.7%26.1%48.2%0-1

Both AI analysts pick the same result as the model. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.

How we grade each model

Recent form

Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.

Marítimo14th · 8 pts from 10 · 5 days' rest

  1. Lost 0–3 v Benfica (home), 5 Sep
  2. Lost 1–3 v Moreirense (away), 14 Sep
  3. Drew 1–1 v Gil Vicente (away), 19 Sep
  4. Lost 1–2 v Porto (home), 10 Oct
  5. Lost 0–5 v Vitória SC (away), 23 Oct

Last 5 league matches, latest on the right

  1. Drew 1–1 v Gil Vicente (away), 19 Sep, Primeira Liga
  2. Lost 1–2 v Porto (home), 10 Oct, Primeira Liga
  3. Won 2–1 v Alcochetense (away), 18 Oct, Taca de Portugal
  4. Lost 0–5 v Vitória SC (away), 23 Oct, Primeira Liga
  5. Lost 1–2 v Sporting CP (away), 27 Oct, Taca da Liga

Last 5 in all competitions, including cups

Rest counted from Taca da Liga v Sporting CP, 27 Oct

Santa Clara4th · 21 pts from 10 · 6 days' rest

  1. Won 4–0 v Rio Ave (home), 6 Sep
  2. Won 2–1 v Arouca (away), 13 Sep
  3. Drew 0–0 v Braga (home), 20 Sep
  4. Won 1–0 v Casa Pia (away), 10 Oct
  5. Lost 1–2 v Benfica (home), 26 Oct

Last 5 league matches, latest on the right

  1. Won 2–1 v Arouca (away), 13 Sep, Primeira Liga
  2. Drew 0–0 v Braga (home), 20 Sep, Primeira Liga
  3. Won 1–0 v Casa Pia (away), 10 Oct, Primeira Liga
  4. Lost 2–3 v Mafra (away), 18 Oct, Taca de Portugal, after extra time
  5. Lost 1–2 v Benfica (home), 26 Oct, Primeira Liga

Last 5 in all competitions, including cups

Rest counted from Primeira Liga v Benfica, 26 Oct

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings, latest first. Meetings in divisions we do not cover are not included.

DateHomeScoreAway
25 Feb 2023Marítimo3 – 1Santa Clara
4 Sep 2022Santa Clara2 – 1Marítimo
23 Apr 2022Santa Clara2 – 2Marítimo
11 Dec 2021Marítimo4 – 1Santa Clara
Full head-to-head record

FAQ

What was the result of Marítimo vs Santa Clara?

Marítimo 0–2 Santa Clara after 90 minutes.

Did the AI predict Marítimo vs Santa Clara correctly?

Yes. Our locked forecast made Santa Clara the pick at 48%.

What score did the model expect?

The single most likely score was 0-1 (14%). The actual 0-2 had a 9.3% chance in the same grid.

How is this forecast graded?

On the 90-minute result with the Ranked Probability Score (RPS), where lower is better. This match scored 0.167.

Was the forecast changed after kickoff?

No. It was locked at 1 Nov 2026 02:33 UTC with sha256 a0fabd53a5b4 and is published in our public ledger.

For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling