Académico de Viseu 2–1 Rio Ave: AI backed Académico de Viseu (correct)
f6111a2fcc5ePrediction outcome
Result pick correct
We predicted Académico de Viseu win (49%). Final score 2–1.
Exact score not matched
Most likely score 1-1, actual 2-1. The most likely Académico de Viseu win is 1-0 (11%). A win is spread over many scores (1-0, 2-1, 2-0…), a draw over a few, so the single top score can be a draw even when a win is the pick. Exact scores land about one time in eight, so this is shown for reference.
Over 2.5 goals: yes
We gave over 2.5 a 50% chance; the match had 3 goals.
Both teams scored: yes
We gave both teams to score a 52% chance.
RPS for this match0.161Lower is better · running average 0.193Track record
Original forecast
Locked before kickoff ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Timeline
- Forecast lockedSaved and hashed 15 hours 27 min before kickoff (our standard is 24 hours; this forecast was locked later).
- Match completedFull time, 90 minutes: 2–1.
- Result verifiedConfirmed by two sources, then graded.
What happened vs what we expected
We made Académico de Viseu the pick at 49% to win. That pick was correct. The most likely score in our grid was 1-1; the actual 2-1 had a 8.5% chance. This match scored an RPS of 0.161, better than our running average of 0.193 (lower is better).
Pre-match analysis (unchanged)
Our model gives Académico de Viseu a 49% chance of beating Rio Ave at Estádio do Fontelo, with the draw at 25% and Rio Ave at 26%. The single most likely score is 1-1 (12%); the most likely Académico de Viseu win is 1-0. Low confidence.
Model panel
| Model | Académico de Viseu | Draw | Rio Ave | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 49.4% | 24.9% | 25.7% | 1-1 |
| ClaudeAI analyst · shadowAI analysts' view – not part of the published probability | 49.4% | 24.9% | 25.7% | 1-1 |
| CodexAI analyst · shadowAI analysts' view – not part of the published probability | 49.4% | 24.9% | 25.7% | 1-1 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 49.4% | 24.9% | 25.7% | 1-1 |
Both AI analysts pick the same result as the model. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelRecent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
Académico de Viseu6th · 20 pts from 10 · 4 days' rest
- Won 1–0 v Gil Vicente (away), 6 Sep
- Won 2–1 v Vitória SC (home), 12 Sep
- Won 2–0 v Estrela da Amadora (away), 20 Sep
- Won 2–1 v Estoril Praia (home), 10 Oct
- Won 2–1 v Sporting CP (away), 25 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Won 2–0 v Estrela da Amadora (away), 20 Sep, Primeira Liga
- Won 2–1 v Estoril Praia (home), 10 Oct, Primeira Liga
- Lost 0–1 v Fatima (away), 18 Oct, Taca de Portugal
- Won 2–1 v Sporting CP (away), 25 Oct, Primeira Liga
- Lost 0–1 v Porto (away), 28 Oct, Taca da Liga
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Taca da Liga v Porto, 28 Oct
Rio Ave16th · 7 pts from 10 · 7 days' rest
- Lost 0–4 v Santa Clara (away), 6 Sep
- Drew 3–3 v Estrela da Amadora (home), 14 Sep
- Lost 0–1 v Alverca (away), 19 Sep
- Won 3–2 v Nacional (home), 11 Oct
- Lost 0–4 v Famalicão (home), 25 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Drew 3–3 v Estrela da Amadora (home), 14 Sep, Primeira Liga
- Lost 0–1 v Alverca (away), 19 Sep, Primeira Liga
- Won 3–2 v Nacional (home), 11 Oct, Primeira Liga
- Won 1–0 v Louletano (away), 17 Oct, Taca de Portugal
- Lost 0–4 v Famalicão (home), 25 Oct, Primeira Liga
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Primeira Liga v Famalicão, 25 Oct
Head-to-head
These clubs have not met since 2021/22, the start of our results data. Meetings in divisions we do not cover are not included.
FAQ
What was the result of Académico de Viseu vs Rio Ave?
Académico de Viseu 2–1 Rio Ave after 90 minutes.
Did the AI predict Académico de Viseu vs Rio Ave correctly?
Yes. Our locked forecast made Académico de Viseu the pick at 49%.
What score did the model expect?
The single most likely score was 1-1 (12%). The actual 2-1 had a 8.5% chance in the same grid.
How is this forecast graded?
On the 90-minute result with the Ranked Probability Score (RPS), where lower is better. This match scored 0.161.
Was the forecast changed after kickoff?
No. It was locked at 1 Nov 2026 02:33 UTC with sha256 f6111a2fcc5e and is published in our public ledger.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling