Falkirk 2–0 Celtic: our model backed Celtic (missed)
4aa2d0385f4dPrediction outcome
Result pick missed
We predicted Celtic win (63%). Final score 2–0.
Exact score not matched
Most likely score 1-2, actual 2-0. Exact scores land about one time in eight, so this is shown for reference.
Over 2.5 goals: no
We gave over 2.5 a 59% chance; the match had 2 goals.
Both teams scored: no
We gave both teams to score a 56% chance.
RPS for this match0.557Lower is better · running average 0.193Track record
Original forecast
Locked before kickoff ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Timeline
- Forecast lockedSaved and hashed 9 hours 11 min before kickoff (our standard is 24 hours; this forecast was locked later).
- Match completedFull time, 90 minutes: 2–0.
- Result verifiedConfirmed by two sources, then graded.
What happened vs what we expected
We made Celtic the pick at 63% to win. It went the other way: Falkirk won. The most likely score in our grid was 1-2; the actual 2-0 had a 2.1% chance. This match scored an RPS of 0.557, worse than our running average of 0.193 (lower is better).
Pre-match analysis (unchanged)
Our model makes Celtic favourites at 63% away to Falkirk, with the draw at 22% and a Falkirk win at 15%. The most likely score is 1-2 (11%). Medium confidence.
Model panel
| Model | Falkirk | Draw | Celtic | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 15.3% | 21.6% | 63.1% | 1-2 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 15.3% | 21.6% | 63.1% | 1-2 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelRecent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
Falkirk4th · 18 pts from 12 · 4 days' rest
- Drew 1–1 v St Johnstone (away), 19 Sep
- Lost 1–2 v Dundee (home), 10 Oct
- Won 2–1 v Hibernian (away), 17 Oct
- Won 3–0 v Kilmarnock (home), 24 Oct
- Won 1–0 v Aberdeen (away), 28 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
Rest counted from Scottish Premiership v Aberdeen, 28 Oct
Celtic1st · 28 pts from 12 · 4 days' rest
- Lost 0–1 v Rangers (home), 20 Sep
- Won 2–0 v Motherwell (away), 11 Oct
- Won 7–1 v Hearts (home), 18 Oct
- Won 2–1 v Hibernian (away), 25 Oct
- Drew 2–2 v Dundee United (home), 28 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Lost 1–4 v Benfica (away), 15 Oct, UEFA Europa League
- Won 7–1 v Hearts (home), 18 Oct, Scottish Premiership
- Lost 1–2 v Celta Vigo (home), 22 Oct, UEFA Europa League
- Won 2–1 v Hibernian (away), 25 Oct, Scottish Premiership
- Drew 2–2 v Dundee United (home), 28 Oct, Scottish Premiership
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Scottish Premiership v Dundee United, 28 Oct
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings, latest first. Meetings in divisions we do not cover are not included. Scottish Premiership seasons missing from our data: 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Aug 2026 | Celtic | 2 – 1 | Falkirk |
| 25 Apr 2026 | Celtic | 3 – 1 | Falkirk |
| 1 Feb 2026 | Celtic | 2 – 0 | Falkirk |
| 14 Jan 2026 | Falkirk | 0 – 1 | Celtic |
| 29 Oct 2025 | Celtic | 4 – 0 | Falkirk |
FAQ
What was the result of Falkirk vs Celtic?
Falkirk 2–0 Celtic after 90 minutes.
Did the AI predict Falkirk vs Celtic correctly?
No. Our locked forecast made Celtic the pick at 63%.
What score did the model expect?
The single most likely score was 1-2 (11%). The actual 2-0 had a 2.1% chance in the same grid.
How is this forecast graded?
On the 90-minute result with the Ranked Probability Score (RPS), where lower is better. This match scored 0.557.
Was the forecast changed after kickoff?
No. It was locked at 1 Nov 2026 03:48 UTC with sha256 4aa2d0385f4d and is published in our public ledger.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling