Atalanta 0–3 Parma: our model backed Atalanta (missed)
703ca6a49c3aPrediction outcome
Result pick missed
We predicted Atalanta win (65%). Final score 0–3.
Exact score not matched
Most likely score 1-0, actual 0-3. Exact scores land about one time in eight, so this is shown for reference.
Over 2.5 goals: yes
We gave over 2.5 a 46% chance; the match had 3 goals.
Both teams scored: no
We gave both teams to score a 43% chance.
RPS for this match0.587Lower is better · running average 0.193Track record
Original forecast
Locked before kickoff ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Timeline
- Forecast lockedSaved and hashed 17 hours 21 min before kickoff (our standard is 24 hours; this forecast was locked later).
- Match completedFull time, 90 minutes: 0–3.
- Result verifiedConfirmed by two sources, then graded.
What happened vs what we expected
We made Atalanta the pick at 65% to win. It went the other way: Parma won. The most likely score in our grid was 1-0; the actual 0-3 had a 0.5% chance. This match scored an RPS of 0.587, worse than our running average of 0.193 (lower is better).
Pre-match analysis (unchanged)
Our model gives Atalanta a 65% chance of beating Parma at New Balance Arena, with the draw at 22% and Parma at 13%. The most likely score is 1-0 (15%). Medium confidence.
Model panel
| Model | Atalanta | Draw | Parma | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 64.6% | 22.4% | 13.0% | 1-0 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 64.6% | 22.4% | 13.0% | 1-0 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelRecent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
Atalanta13th · 11 pts from 10 · 4 days' rest
- Lost 0–2 v Juventus (away), 20 Sep
- Won 3–1 v Venezia (home), 12 Oct
- Lost 2–3 v AC Milan (away), 18 Oct
- Drew 4–4 v Frosinone (home), 25 Oct
- Drew 2–2 v Fiorentina (away), 29 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Won 3–1 v Pafos (home), 15 Oct, UEFA Conference League
- Lost 2–3 v AC Milan (away), 18 Oct, Serie A
- Lost 0–2 v Ajax Amsterdam (away), 22 Oct, UEFA Conference League
- Drew 4–4 v Frosinone (home), 25 Oct, Serie A
- Drew 2–2 v Fiorentina (away), 29 Oct, Serie A
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Serie A v Fiorentina, 29 Oct
Parma15th · 8 pts from 10 · 5 days' rest
- Won 2–1 v Genoa (home), 20 Sep
- Lost 0–3 v Internazionale (away), 10 Oct
- Lost 0–3 v Torino (home), 19 Oct
- Lost 1–2 v Lazio (away), 24 Oct
- Drew 0–0 v Udinese (home), 28 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
Rest counted from Serie A v Udinese, 28 Oct
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings, latest first. Meetings in divisions we do not cover are not included.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jan 2026 | Atalanta | 4 – 0 | Parma |
| 30 Aug 2025 | Parma | 1 – 1 | Atalanta |
| 25 May 2025 | Atalanta | 2 – 3 | Parma |
| 23 Nov 2024 | Parma | 1 – 3 | Atalanta |
FAQ
What was the result of Atalanta vs Parma?
Atalanta 0–3 Parma after 90 minutes.
Did the AI predict Atalanta vs Parma correctly?
No. Our locked forecast made Atalanta the pick at 65%.
What score did the model expect?
The single most likely score was 1-0 (15%). The actual 0-3 had a 0.5% chance in the same grid.
How is this forecast graded?
On the 90-minute result with the Ranked Probability Score (RPS), where lower is better. This match scored 0.587.
Was the forecast changed after kickoff?
No. It was locked at 2 Nov 2026 02:24 UTC with sha256 703ca6a49c3a and is published in our public ledger.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling