Sassuolo 2–4 Fiorentina: our model backed Fiorentina (correct)
848f6784b605Prediction outcome
Result pick correct
We predicted Fiorentina win (40%). Final score 2–4.
Exact score not matched
Most likely score 1-1, actual 2-4. The most likely Fiorentina win is 1-2 (9%). A win is spread over many scores (1-0, 2-1, 2-0…), a draw over a few, so the single top score can be a draw even when a win is the pick. Exact scores land about one time in eight, so this is shown for reference.
Over 2.5 goals: yes
We gave over 2.5 a 56% chance; the match had 6 goals.
Both teams scored: yes
We gave both teams to score a 60% chance.
RPS for this match0.237Lower is better · running average 0.193Track record
Original forecast
Locked before kickoff ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Timeline
- Forecast lockedSaved and hashed 15 hours 6 min before kickoff (our standard is 24 hours; this forecast was locked later).
- Match completedFull time, 90 minutes: 2–4.
- Result verifiedConfirmed by two sources, then graded.
What happened vs what we expected
We made Fiorentina the pick at 40% to win. That pick was correct. The most likely score in our grid was 1-1; the actual 2-4 had a 1.2% chance. This match scored an RPS of 0.237, worse than our running average of 0.193 (lower is better).
Pre-match analysis (unchanged)
Our model makes Fiorentina favourites at 40% away to Sassuolo, with the draw at 26% and a Sassuolo win at 34%. The single most likely score is 1-1 (12%); the most likely Fiorentina win is 1-2. Low confidence.
Model panel
| Model | Sassuolo | Draw | Fiorentina | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 33.7% | 26.4% | 39.9% | 1-1 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 33.7% | 26.4% | 39.9% | 1-1 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelRecent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
Sassuolo17th · 8 pts from 10 · 6 days' rest
- Lost 1–2 v Monza (away), 18 Sep
- Drew 1–1 v AC Milan (home), 11 Oct
- Lost 2–4 v Frosinone (away), 16 Oct
- Lost 0–2 v Como (away), 24 Oct
- Lost 2–6 v Lazio (home), 27 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
Rest counted from Serie A v Lazio, 27 Oct
Fiorentina16th · 8 pts from 10 · 4 days' rest
- Drew 1–1 v Napoli (home), 20 Sep
- Lost 1–2 v Genoa (away), 10 Oct
- Lost 1–3 v Como (home), 18 Oct
- Lost 1–2 v Internazionale (away), 25 Oct
- Drew 2–2 v Atalanta (home), 29 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
Rest counted from Serie A v Atalanta, 29 Oct
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings, latest first. Meetings in divisions we do not cover are not included.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Apr 2026 | Fiorentina | 0 – 0 | Sassuolo |
| 6 Dec 2025 | Sassuolo | 3 – 1 | Fiorentina |
| 28 Apr 2024 | Fiorentina | 5 – 1 | Sassuolo |
| 6 Jan 2024 | Sassuolo | 1 – 0 | Fiorentina |
| 2 Jun 2023 | Sassuolo | 1 – 3 | Fiorentina |
FAQ
What was the result of Sassuolo vs Fiorentina?
Sassuolo 2–4 Fiorentina after 90 minutes.
Did the AI predict Sassuolo vs Fiorentina correctly?
Yes. Our locked forecast made Fiorentina the pick at 40%.
What score did the model expect?
The single most likely score was 1-1 (12%). The actual 2-4 had a 1.2% chance in the same grid.
How is this forecast graded?
On the 90-minute result with the Ranked Probability Score (RPS), where lower is better. This match scored 0.237.
Was the forecast changed after kickoff?
No. It was locked at 2 Nov 2026 02:24 UTC with sha256 848f6784b605 and is published in our public ledger.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling