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Gençlerbirliği 5–0 Alanyaspor: our model backed Alanyaspor (missed)

Gençlerbirliği
Süper LigFull time · 90 minutes5–0Eryaman Stadium, Ankara
Alanyaspor
MissedLocked 5dfab0c7acf4

Prediction outcome

Result pick missed

We predicted Alanyaspor win (38%). Final score 5–0.

Exact score not matched

Most likely score 1-1, actual 5-0. The most likely Alanyaspor win is 0-1 (12%). A win is spread over many scores (1-0, 2-1, 2-0…), a draw over a few, so the single top score can be a draw even when a win is the pick. Exact scores land about one time in eight, so this is shown for reference.

Over 2.5 goals: yes

We gave over 2.5 a 40% chance; the match had 5 goals.

Both teams scored: no

We gave both teams to score a 47% chance.

RPS for this match0.305Lower is better · running average 0.193Track record

Original forecast

Locked before kickoff ·
Gençlerbirliği32%Home win
Draw30%Draw
Alanyaspor38%Pick · Away win

90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.

Predicted most likely score1 – 1
Actual result5 – 0

Timeline

  1. Forecast lockedSaved and hashed 14 hours 36 min before kickoff (our standard is 24 hours; this forecast was locked later).
  2. Match completedFull time, 90 minutes: 5–0.
  3. Result verifiedConfirmed by two sources, then graded.

What happened vs what we expected

We made Alanyaspor the pick at 38% to win. It went the other way: Gençlerbirliği won. The most likely score in our grid was 1-1; the actual 5-0 had a 0.1% chance. This match scored an RPS of 0.305, worse than our running average of 0.193 (lower is better).

Generated automatically from the graded result and the locked forecast · graded

Pre-match analysis (unchanged)

Our model makes Alanyaspor favourites at 38% away to Gençlerbirliği, with the draw at 30% and a Gençlerbirliği win at 32%. The single most likely score is 1-1 (14%); the most likely Alanyaspor win is 0-1. Low confidence.

Model panel

ModelGençlerbirliğiDrawAlanyasporLikely score
Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles32.0%29.6%38.4%1-1
Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model32.0%29.6%38.4%1-1

Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.

How we grade each model

Recent form

Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.

Gençlerbirliği14th · 11 pts from 10 · 4 days' rest

  1. Lost 1–2 v Kasımpaşa (home), 13 Sep
  2. Lost 0–4 v Istanbul Basaksehir (away), 19 Sep
  3. Drew 2–2 v Amed SFK (home), 10 Oct
  4. Lost 0–1 v Galatasaray (home), 17 Oct
  5. Lost 0–2 v Konyaspor (away), 25 Oct

Last 5 league matches, latest on the right

  1. Lost 0–4 v Istanbul Basaksehir (away), 19 Sep, Süper Lig
  2. Drew 2–2 v Amed SFK (home), 10 Oct, Süper Lig
  3. Lost 0–1 v Galatasaray (home), 17 Oct, Süper Lig
  4. Lost 0–2 v Konyaspor (away), 25 Oct, Süper Lig
  5. Won 5–0 v Karaköprü Belediyespor (home), 29 Oct, Turkish Cup

Last 5 in all competitions, including cups

Rest counted from Turkish Cup v Karaköprü Belediyespor, 29 Oct

Alanyaspor12th · 12 pts from 10 · 6 days' rest

  1. Drew 2–2 v Göztepe (home), 12 Sep
  2. Won 2–1 v Çorum FK (away), 19 Sep
  3. Drew 0–0 v Erzurum BB (home), 10 Oct
  4. Lost 0–3 v Fenerbahçe (away), 17 Oct
  5. Lost 1–2 v Kocaelispor (home), 23 Oct

Last 5 league matches, latest on the right

  1. Won 2–1 v Çorum FK (away), 19 Sep, Süper Lig
  2. Drew 0–0 v Erzurum BB (home), 10 Oct, Süper Lig
  3. Lost 0–3 v Fenerbahçe (away), 17 Oct, Süper Lig
  4. Lost 1–2 v Kocaelispor (home), 23 Oct, Süper Lig
  5. Won 4–1 v 12 Bingölspor (home), 27 Oct, Turkish Cup

Last 5 in all competitions, including cups

Rest counted from Turkish Cup v 12 Bingölspor, 27 Oct

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings, latest first. Meetings in divisions we do not cover are not included.

DateHomeScoreAway
9 Mar 2026Alanyaspor0 – 0Gençlerbirliği
4 Oct 2025Gençlerbirliği2 – 2Alanyaspor
Full head-to-head record

FAQ

What was the result of Gençlerbirliği vs Alanyaspor?

Gençlerbirliği 5–0 Alanyaspor after 90 minutes.

Did the AI predict Gençlerbirliği vs Alanyaspor correctly?

No. Our locked forecast made Alanyaspor the pick at 38%.

What score did the model expect?

The single most likely score was 1-1 (14%). The actual 5-0 had a 0.1% chance in the same grid.

How is this forecast graded?

On the 90-minute result with the Ranked Probability Score (RPS), where lower is better. This match scored 0.305.

Was the forecast changed after kickoff?

No. It was locked at 2 Nov 2026 02:24 UTC with sha256 5dfab0c7acf4 and is published in our public ledger.

For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling