Istanbul Basaksehir 5–2 Samsunspor: our model backed Istanbul Basaksehir (correct)
e47f8857e84bPrediction outcome
Result pick correct
We predicted Istanbul Basaksehir win (56%). Final score 5–2.
Exact score not matched
Most likely score 1-1, actual 5-2. The most likely Istanbul Basaksehir win is 2-1 (10%). A win is spread over many scores (1-0, 2-1, 2-0…), a draw over a few, so the single top score can be a draw even when a win is the pick. Exact scores land about one time in eight, so this is shown for reference.
Over 2.5 goals: yes
We gave over 2.5 a 55% chance; the match had 7 goals.
Both teams scored: yes
We gave both teams to score a 56% chance.
RPS for this match0.115Lower is better · running average 0.193Track record
Original forecast
Locked before kickoff ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Timeline
- Forecast lockedSaved and hashed 1 hour 13 min before kickoff (our standard is 24 hours; this forecast was locked later).
- Match completedFull time, 90 minutes: 5–2.
- Result verifiedConfirmed by two sources, then graded.
What happened vs what we expected
We made Istanbul Basaksehir the pick at 56% to win. That pick was correct. The most likely score in our grid was 1-1; the actual 5-2 had a 0.6% chance. This match scored an RPS of 0.115, better than our running average of 0.193 (lower is better).
Pre-match analysis (unchanged)
Our model gives Istanbul Basaksehir a 56% chance of beating Samsunspor at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium, with the draw at 25% and Samsunspor at 19%. The single most likely score is 1-1 (12%); the most likely Istanbul Basaksehir win is 2-1. Medium confidence.
Model panel
| Model | Istanbul Basaksehir | Draw | Samsunspor | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 56.0% | 24.9% | 19.1% | 1-1 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 56.0% | 24.9% | 19.1% | 1-1 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelRecent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
Istanbul Basaksehir10th · 14 pts from 10 · 6 days' rest
- Lost 0–5 v Amed SFK (away), 13 Sep
- Won 4–0 v Gençlerbirliği (home), 19 Sep
- Drew 0–0 v Konyaspor (away), 11 Oct
- Won 2–1 v Gaziantep FK (home), 18 Oct
- Lost 0–2 v Beşiktaş (away), 26 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
Rest counted from Süper Lig v Beşiktaş, 26 Oct
Samsunspor17th · 4 pts from 10 · 8 days' rest
- Lost 1–5 v Çorum FK (home), 12 Sep
- Lost 0–1 v Erzurum BB (away), 20 Sep
- Lost 0–3 v Trabzonspor (home), 10 Oct
- Lost 1–4 v Kasımpaşa (away), 18 Oct
- Lost 1–2 v Amed SFK (home), 24 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
Rest counted from Süper Lig v Amed SFK, 24 Oct
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings, latest first. Meetings in divisions we do not cover are not included.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 May 2026 | Istanbul Basaksehir | 3 – 0 | Samsunspor |
| 14 Dec 2025 | Samsunspor | 0 – 2 | Istanbul Basaksehir |
| 1 Feb 2025 | Istanbul Basaksehir | 4 – 0 | Samsunspor |
| 18 Sep 2024 | Samsunspor | 2 – 0 | Istanbul Basaksehir |
| 3 Mar 2024 | Istanbul Basaksehir | 1 – 0 | Samsunspor |
FAQ
What was the result of Istanbul Basaksehir vs Samsunspor?
Istanbul Basaksehir 5–2 Samsunspor after 90 minutes.
Did the AI predict Istanbul Basaksehir vs Samsunspor correctly?
Yes. Our locked forecast made Istanbul Basaksehir the pick at 56%.
What score did the model expect?
The single most likely score was 1-1 (12%). The actual 5-2 had a 0.6% chance in the same grid.
How is this forecast graded?
On the 90-minute result with the Ranked Probability Score (RPS), where lower is better. This match scored 0.115.
Was the forecast changed after kickoff?
No. It was locked at 1 Nov 2026 11:46 UTC with sha256 e47f8857e84b and is published in our public ledger.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling