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Kasımpaşa 2–2 Beşiktaş: our model backed Beşiktaş (missed)

Kasımpaşa
Süper LigFull time · 90 minutes2–2Recep Tayyip Erdogan Stadium, Istanbul
Beşiktaş
MissedLocked 874fb3da7f01

Prediction outcome

Result pick missed

We predicted Beşiktaş win (44%). Final score 2–2.

Exact score not matched

Most likely score 1-1, actual 2-2. The most likely Beşiktaş win is 1-2 (9%). A win is spread over many scores (1-0, 2-1, 2-0…), a draw over a few, so the single top score can be a draw even when a win is the pick. Exact scores land about one time in eight, so this is shown for reference.

Over 2.5 goals: yes

We gave over 2.5 a 52% chance; the match had 4 goals.

Both teams scored: yes

We gave both teams to score a 57% chance.

RPS for this match0.137Lower is better · running average 0.193Track record

Original forecast

Locked before kickoff ·
Kasımpaşa28%Home win
Draw28%Draw
Beşiktaş44%Pick · Away win

90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.

Predicted most likely score1 – 1
Actual result2 – 2

Timeline

  1. Forecast lockedSaved and hashed 4 hours 13 min before kickoff (our standard is 24 hours; this forecast was locked later).
  2. Match completedFull time, 90 minutes: 2–2.
  3. Result verifiedConfirmed by two sources, then graded.

What happened vs what we expected

We made Beşiktaş the pick at 44% to win. It went the other way: a draw. The most likely score in our grid was 1-1; the actual 2-2 had a 5.7% chance. This match scored an RPS of 0.137, better than our running average of 0.193 (lower is better).

Generated automatically from the graded result and the locked forecast · graded

Pre-match analysis (unchanged)

Our model makes Beşiktaş favourites at 44% away to Kasımpaşa, with the draw at 28% and a Kasımpaşa win at 28%. The single most likely score is 1-1 (13%); the most likely Beşiktaş win is 1-2. Low confidence.

Model panel

ModelKasımpaşaDrawBeşiktaşLikely score
Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles28.4%27.5%44.1%1-1
Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model28.4%27.5%44.1%1-1

Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.

How we grade each model

Recent form

Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.

Kasımpaşa5th · 17 pts from 10 · 3 days' rest

  1. Won 2–1 v Gençlerbirliği (away), 13 Sep
  2. Drew 0–0 v Konyaspor (home), 18 Sep
  3. Lost 1–3 v Galatasaray (away), 9 Oct
  4. Won 4–1 v Samsunspor (home), 18 Oct
  5. Won 1–0 v Eyüpspor (away), 24 Oct

Last 5 league matches, latest on the right

  1. Drew 0–0 v Konyaspor (home), 18 Sep, Süper Lig
  2. Lost 1–3 v Galatasaray (away), 9 Oct, Süper Lig
  3. Won 4–1 v Samsunspor (home), 18 Oct, Süper Lig
  4. Won 1–0 v Eyüpspor (away), 24 Oct, Süper Lig
  5. Won 3–1 v Çorluspor 1947 (home), 29 Oct, Turkish Cup

Last 5 in all competitions, including cups

Rest counted from Turkish Cup v Çorluspor 1947, 29 Oct

Beşiktaş4th · 19 pts from 10 · 6 days' rest

  1. Won 3–0 v Erzurum BB (home), 11 Sep
  2. Lost 2–3 v Amed SFK (away), 20 Sep
  3. Won 2–1 v Kocaelispor (home), 11 Oct
  4. Lost 0–2 v Trabzonspor (away), 19 Oct
  5. Won 2–0 v Istanbul Basaksehir (home), 26 Oct

Last 5 league matches, latest on the right

  1. Won 2–1 v Kocaelispor (home), 11 Oct, Süper Lig
  2. Won 3–2 v TSG Hoffenheim (away), 15 Oct, UEFA Europa League
  3. Lost 0–2 v Trabzonspor (away), 19 Oct, Süper Lig
  4. Drew 2–2 v Crystal Palace (home), 22 Oct, UEFA Europa League
  5. Won 2–0 v Istanbul Basaksehir (home), 26 Oct, Süper Lig

Last 5 in all competitions, including cups

Rest counted from Süper Lig v Istanbul Basaksehir, 26 Oct

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings, latest first. Meetings in divisions we do not cover are not included.

DateHomeScoreAway
19 Mar 2026Beşiktaş2 – 1Kasımpaşa
26 Oct 2025Kasımpaşa1 – 1Beşiktaş
7 Apr 2025Kasımpaşa1 – 1Beşiktaş
2 Nov 2024Beşiktaş1 – 3Kasımpaşa
26 May 2024Kasımpaşa2 – 1Beşiktaş
Full head-to-head record

FAQ

What was the result of Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş?

Kasımpaşa 2–2 Beşiktaş after 90 minutes.

Did the AI predict Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş correctly?

No. Our locked forecast made Beşiktaş the pick at 44%.

What score did the model expect?

The single most likely score was 1-1 (13%). The actual 2-2 had a 5.7% chance in the same grid.

How is this forecast graded?

On the 90-minute result with the Ranked Probability Score (RPS), where lower is better. This match scored 0.137.

Was the forecast changed after kickoff?

No. It was locked at 1 Nov 2026 11:46 UTC with sha256 874fb3da7f01 and is published in our public ledger.

For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling