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Trabzonspor 2–0 Gaziantep FK: our model backed Trabzonspor (correct)

Trabzonspor
Süper LigFull time · 90 minutes2–0Papara Park, Trabzon
Gaziantep FK
CorrectLocked 0d4bed49391d

Prediction outcome

Result pick correct

We predicted Trabzonspor win (69%). Final score 2–0.

Exact score matched

Most likely score 2-0, actual 2-0. Exact scores land about one time in eight, so this is shown for reference.

Over 2.5 goals: no

We gave over 2.5 a 63% chance; the match had 2 goals.

Both teams scored: no

We gave both teams to score a 55% chance.

RPS for this match0.053Lower is better · running average 0.193Track record

Original forecast

Locked before kickoff ·
Trabzonspor69%Pick · Home win
Draw20%Draw
Gaziantep FK11%Away win

90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.

Predicted most likely score2 – 0
Actual result2 – 0

Timeline

  1. Forecast lockedSaved and hashed 1 hour 13 min before kickoff (our standard is 24 hours; this forecast was locked later).
  2. Match completedFull time, 90 minutes: 2–0.
  3. Result verifiedConfirmed by two sources, then graded.

What happened vs what we expected

We made Trabzonspor the pick at 69% to win. That pick was correct. The most likely score in our grid was 2-0; the actual 2-0 had a 10.7% chance. This match scored an RPS of 0.053, better than our running average of 0.193 (lower is better).

Generated automatically from the graded result and the locked forecast · graded

Pre-match analysis (unchanged)

Our model gives Trabzonspor a 69% chance of beating Gaziantep FK at Papara Park, with the draw at 20% and Gaziantep FK at 11%. The most likely score is 2-0 (11%). High confidence.

Model panel

ModelTrabzonsporDrawGaziantep FKLikely score
Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles69.3%19.9%10.8%2-0
Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model69.3%19.9%10.8%2-0

Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.

How we grade each model

Recent form

Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.

Trabzonspor3rd · 22 pts from 10 · 6 days' rest

  1. Lost 0–1 v Konyaspor (away), 12 Sep
  2. Won 4–0 v Galatasaray (home), 19 Sep
  3. Won 3–0 v Samsunspor (away), 10 Oct
  4. Won 2–0 v Beşiktaş (home), 19 Oct
  5. Won 4–3 v Caykur Rizespor (away), 26 Oct

Last 5 league matches, latest on the right

  1. Won 3–0 v Samsunspor (away), 10 Oct, Süper Lig
  2. Won 4–2 v KuPS Kuopio (away), 15 Oct, UEFA Conference League
  3. Won 2–0 v Beşiktaş (home), 19 Oct, Süper Lig
  4. Won 2–0 v Hearts (home), 22 Oct, UEFA Conference League
  5. Won 4–3 v Caykur Rizespor (away), 26 Oct, Süper Lig

Last 5 in all competitions, including cups

Rest counted from Süper Lig v Caykur Rizespor, 26 Oct

Gaziantep FK16th · 8 pts from 10 · 5 days' rest

  1. Drew 0–0 v Fenerbahçe (home), 14 Sep
  2. Lost 0–2 v Kocaelispor (away), 19 Sep
  3. Lost 0–3 v Çorum FK (home), 11 Oct
  4. Lost 1–2 v Istanbul Basaksehir (away), 18 Oct
  5. Lost 1–3 v Erzurum BB (home), 24 Oct

Last 5 league matches, latest on the right

  1. Lost 0–2 v Kocaelispor (away), 19 Sep, Süper Lig
  2. Lost 0–3 v Çorum FK (home), 11 Oct, Süper Lig
  3. Lost 1–2 v Istanbul Basaksehir (away), 18 Oct, Süper Lig
  4. Lost 1–3 v Erzurum BB (home), 24 Oct, Süper Lig
  5. Won 4–0 v Etimesgut Spor Kulubu (away), 27 Oct, Turkish Cup

Last 5 in all competitions, including cups

Rest counted from Turkish Cup v Etimesgut Spor Kulubu, 27 Oct

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings, latest first. Meetings in divisions we do not cover are not included.

DateHomeScoreAway
22 Feb 2026Gaziantep FK1 – 2Trabzonspor
20 Sep 2025Trabzonspor1 – 1Gaziantep FK
23 Feb 2025Trabzonspor3 – 2Gaziantep FK
23 Sep 2024Gaziantep FK0 – 0Trabzonspor
28 Apr 2024Trabzonspor4 – 2Gaziantep FK
Full head-to-head record

FAQ

What was the result of Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK?

Trabzonspor 2–0 Gaziantep FK after 90 minutes.

Did the AI predict Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK correctly?

Yes. Our locked forecast made Trabzonspor the pick at 69%.

What score did the model expect?

The single most likely score was 2-0 (11%). The actual 2-0 had a 10.7% chance in the same grid.

How is this forecast graded?

On the 90-minute result with the Ranked Probability Score (RPS), where lower is better. This match scored 0.053.

Was the forecast changed after kickoff?

No. It was locked at 1 Nov 2026 11:46 UTC with sha256 0d4bed49391d and is published in our public ledger.

For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling