Charlton Athletic 0–1 Bolton Wanderers: our model backed Charlton Athletic (missed)
5cd5c4705a8fPrediction outcome
Result pick missed
We predicted Charlton Athletic win (43%). Final score 0–1.
Exact score not matched
Most likely score 1-1, actual 0-1. The most likely Charlton Athletic win is 1-0 (10%). A win is spread over many scores (1-0, 2-1, 2-0…), a draw over a few, so the single top score can be a draw even when a win is the pick. Exact scores land about one time in eight, so this is shown for reference.
Over 2.5 goals: no
We gave over 2.5 a 49% chance; the match had 1 goals.
Both teams scored: no
We gave both teams to score a 54% chance.
RPS for this match0.349Lower is better · running average 0.193Track record
Original forecast
Locked before kickoff ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Timeline
- Forecast lockedSaved and hashed 17 hours 33 min before kickoff (our standard is 24 hours; this forecast was locked later).
- Match completedFull time, 90 minutes: 0–1.
- Result verifiedConfirmed by two sources, then graded.
What happened vs what we expected
We made Charlton Athletic the pick at 43% to win. It went the other way: Bolton Wanderers won. The most likely score in our grid was 1-1; the actual 0-1 had a 7.6% chance. This match scored an RPS of 0.349, worse than our running average of 0.193 (lower is better).
Pre-match analysis (unchanged)
Our model gives Charlton Athletic a 43% chance of beating Bolton Wanderers at The Valley, with the draw at 28% and Bolton Wanderers at 29%. The single most likely score is 1-1 (13%); the most likely Charlton Athletic win is 1-0. Low confidence.
Model panel
| Model | Charlton Athletic | Draw | Bolton Wanderers | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 43.5% | 27.8% | 28.7% | 1-1 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 43.5% | 27.8% | 28.7% | 1-1 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelRecent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
Charlton Athletic21st · 14 pts from 14 · 3 days' rest
- Drew 1–1 v Bristol City (home), 10 Oct
- Drew 2–2 v Burnley (away), 13 Oct
- Lost 0–2 v Watford (away), 17 Oct
- Lost 1–3 v Norwich City (home), 24 Oct
- Lost 0–3 v Middlesbrough (away), 31 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
Rest counted from EFL Championship v Middlesbrough, 31 Oct
Bolton Wanderers17th · 17 pts from 14 · 3 days' rest
- Lost 1–2 v Stoke City (home), 10 Oct
- Won 3–1 v Wolverhampton Wanderers (away), 13 Oct
- Drew 0–0 v Southampton (away), 17 Oct
- Lost 1–5 v Middlesbrough (home), 23 Oct
- Lost 2–3 v Bristol City (home), 31 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
Rest counted from EFL Championship v Bristol City, 31 Oct
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings in all competitions, latest first. Cup scores include extra time. Meetings in divisions we do not cover are not included.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Jan 2025EFL League One | Bolton Wanderers | 1 – 2 | Charlton Athletic |
| 24 Aug 2024EFL League One | Charlton Athletic | 2 – 0 | Bolton Wanderers |
| 17 Feb 2024EFL League One | Bolton Wanderers | 3 – 3 | Charlton Athletic |
| 28 Oct 2023EFL League One | Charlton Athletic | 0 – 2 | Bolton Wanderers |
| 28 Jan 2023EFL League One | Charlton Athletic | 1 – 2 | Bolton Wanderers |
FAQ
What was the result of Charlton Athletic vs Bolton Wanderers?
Charlton Athletic 0–1 Bolton Wanderers after 90 minutes.
Did the AI predict Charlton Athletic vs Bolton Wanderers correctly?
No. Our locked forecast made Charlton Athletic the pick at 43%.
What score did the model expect?
The single most likely score was 1-1 (13%). The actual 0-1 had a 7.6% chance in the same grid.
How is this forecast graded?
On the 90-minute result with the Ranked Probability Score (RPS), where lower is better. This match scored 0.349.
Was the forecast changed after kickoff?
No. It was locked at 3 Nov 2026 02:11 UTC with sha256 5cd5c4705a8f and is published in our public ledger.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling