Portsmouth 3–1 Swansea City: our model backed Swansea City (missed)
3d3673087ed4Prediction outcome
Result pick missed
We predicted Swansea City win (36%). Final score 3–1.
Exact score not matched
Most likely score 1-1, actual 3-1. The most likely Swansea City win is 0-1 (10%). A win is spread over many scores (1-0, 2-1, 2-0…), a draw over a few, so the single top score can be a draw even when a win is the pick. Exact scores land about one time in eight, so this is shown for reference.
Over 2.5 goals: yes
We gave over 2.5 a 44% chance; the match had 4 goals.
Both teams scored: yes
We gave both teams to score a 51% chance.
RPS for this match0.274Lower is better · running average 0.193Track record
Original forecast
Locked before kickoff ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Timeline
- Forecast lockedSaved and hashed 17 hours 33 min before kickoff (our standard is 24 hours; this forecast was locked later).
- Match completedFull time, 90 minutes: 3–1.
- Result verifiedConfirmed by two sources, then graded.
What happened vs what we expected
We made Swansea City the pick at 36% to win. It went the other way: Portsmouth won. The most likely score in our grid was 1-1; the actual 3-1 had a 3.2% chance. This match scored an RPS of 0.274, worse than our running average of 0.193 (lower is better).
Pre-match analysis (unchanged)
Our model makes Swansea City favourites at 36% away to Portsmouth, with the draw at 29% and a Portsmouth win at 35%. The single most likely score is 1-1 (14%); the most likely Swansea City win is 0-1. Low confidence.
Model panel
| Model | Portsmouth | Draw | Swansea City | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 35.3% | 28.9% | 35.8% | 1-1 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 35.3% | 28.9% | 35.8% | 1-1 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelRecent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
Portsmouth10th · 22 pts from 14 · 3 days' rest
- Won 3–2 v Sheffield United (home), 14 Oct
- Won 1–0 v Norwich City (away), 17 Oct
- Drew 1–1 v Wolverhampton Wanderers (away), 20 Oct
- Won 2–1 v Millwall (home), 24 Oct
- Drew 0–0 v Burnley (away), 31 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
Rest counted from EFL Championship v Burnley, 31 Oct
Swansea City5th · 26 pts from 14 · 3 days' rest
- Won 2–1 v Norwich City (home), 10 Oct
- Won 1–0 v Millwall (away), 13 Oct
- Lost 0–1 v West Ham United (home), 17 Oct
- Lost 0–5 v Queens Park Rangers (away), 24 Oct
- Won 4–0 v Blackburn Rovers (home), 31 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
Rest counted from EFL Championship v Blackburn Rovers, 31 Oct
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings, latest first. Meetings in divisions we do not cover are not included.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Mar 2026 | Portsmouth | 1 – 2 | Swansea City |
| 9 Dec 2025 | Swansea City | 1 – 0 | Portsmouth |
| 1 Jan 2025 | Portsmouth | 4 – 0 | Swansea City |
| 30 Nov 2024 | Swansea City | 2 – 2 | Portsmouth |
FAQ
What was the result of Portsmouth vs Swansea City?
Portsmouth 3–1 Swansea City after 90 minutes.
Did the AI predict Portsmouth vs Swansea City correctly?
No. Our locked forecast made Swansea City the pick at 36%.
What score did the model expect?
The single most likely score was 1-1 (14%). The actual 3-1 had a 3.2% chance in the same grid.
How is this forecast graded?
On the 90-minute result with the Ranked Probability Score (RPS), where lower is better. This match scored 0.274.
Was the forecast changed after kickoff?
No. It was locked at 3 Nov 2026 02:11 UTC with sha256 3d3673087ed4 and is published in our public ledger.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling