Liverpool 0–1 Arsenal: AI backed Arsenal (correct)
98f5c2425a70Prediction outcome
Result pick correct
We predicted Arsenal win (41%). Final score 0–1.
Exact score not matched
Most likely score 1-1, actual 0-1. The most likely Arsenal win is 0-1 (9%). A win is spread over many scores (1-0, 2-1, 2-0…), a draw over a few, so the single top score can be a draw even when a win is the pick. Exact scores land about one time in eight, so this is shown for reference.
Over 2.5 goals: no
We gave over 2.5 a 49% chance; the match had 1 goals.
Both teams scored: no
We gave both teams to score a 54% chance.
RPS for this match0.223Lower is better · running average 0.193Track record
Original forecast
Locked before kickoff ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Timeline
- Forecast lockedSaved and hashed 24 hours before kickoff.
- Match completedFull time, 90 minutes: 0–1.
- Result verifiedConfirmed by two sources, then graded.
What happened vs what we expected
We made Arsenal the pick at 41% to win. That pick was correct. The most likely score in our grid was 1-1; the actual 0-1 had a 9.0% chance. This match scored an RPS of 0.223, worse than our running average of 0.193 (lower is better).
Pre-match analysis (unchanged)
Our model makes Arsenal favourites at 41% away to Liverpool, with the draw at 28% and a Liverpool win at 31%. The single most likely score is 1-1 (13%); the most likely Arsenal win is 0-1. Low confidence.
Model panel
| Model | Liverpool | Draw | Arsenal | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 31.1% | 28.1% | 40.8% | 1-1 |
| ClaudeAI analyst · shadowAI analysts' view – not part of the published probability | 31.5% | 28.0% | 40.5% | 1-1 |
| CodexAI analyst · shadowAI analysts' view – not part of the published probability | 32.2% | 29.0% | 38.8% | 1-1 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 31.1% | 28.1% | 40.8% | 1-1 |
Both AI analysts pick the same result as the model. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelRecent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
Liverpool5th · 15 pts from 9 · 4 days' rest
- Drew 0–0 v Fulham (home), 12 Sep
- Won 1–0 v Bournemouth (away), 20 Sep
- Lost 0–3 v Manchester City (home), 11 Oct
- Won 2–1 v Brentford (away), 17 Oct
- Won 2–0 v Brighton (home), 25 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Won 6–3 v LASK Linz (away), 14 Oct, UEFA Champions League
- Won 2–1 v Brentford (away), 17 Oct, Premier League
- Won 4–3 v Villarreal (home), 20 Oct, UEFA Champions League
- Won 2–0 v Brighton (home), 25 Oct, Premier League
- Drew 1–1 v Chelsea (home), 28 Oct, Carabao Cup, won 6–5 on penalties
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Carabao Cup v Chelsea, 28 Oct
Arsenal1st · 24 pts from 9 · 5 days' rest
- Won 2–0 v Sunderland (away), 12 Sep
- Lost 0–3 v Brighton (away), 19 Sep
- Won 2–1 v Leeds United (home), 10 Oct
- Won 1–0 v Nottingham Forest (away), 18 Oct
- Won 2–0 v Everton (home), 24 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Won 3–0 v Lille (home), 13 Oct, UEFA Champions League
- Won 1–0 v Nottingham Forest (away), 18 Oct, Premier League
- Drew 2–2 v Bayern Munich (away), 21 Oct, UEFA Champions League
- Won 2–0 v Everton (home), 24 Oct, Premier League
- Drew 1–1 v Fleetwood Town (away), 27 Oct, Carabao Cup, lost 3–5 on penalties
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Carabao Cup v Fleetwood Town, 27 Oct
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings, latest first. Meetings in divisions we do not cover are not included.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Jan 2026 | Arsenal | 0 – 0 | Liverpool |
| 31 Aug 2025 | Liverpool | 1 – 0 | Arsenal |
| 11 May 2025 | Liverpool | 2 – 2 | Arsenal |
| 27 Oct 2024 | Arsenal | 2 – 2 | Liverpool |
| 4 Feb 2024 | Arsenal | 3 – 1 | Liverpool |
FAQ
What was the result of Liverpool vs Arsenal?
Liverpool 0–1 Arsenal after 90 minutes.
Did the AI predict Liverpool vs Arsenal correctly?
Yes. Our locked forecast made Arsenal the pick at 41%.
What score did the model expect?
The single most likely score was 1-1 (13%). The actual 0-1 had a 9.0% chance in the same grid.
How is this forecast graded?
On the 90-minute result with the Ranked Probability Score (RPS), where lower is better. This match scored 0.223.
Was the forecast changed after kickoff?
No. It was locked at 31 Oct 2026 17:05 UTC with sha256 98f5c2425a70 and is published in our public ledger.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling