Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille prediction: our model backs Bayer Leverkusen
Quick answer
Our model gives Bayer Leverkusen a 61% chance of beating Marseille at BayArena, with the draw at 21% and Marseille at 18%. The most likely score is 2-1 (10%). Medium confidence.
Match prediction
Forecast locked ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Most likely scores
2-1 is both the single most likely score and the most likely Bayer Leverkusen win.
Full score grid and top 5
| Bayer Leverkusen goals by Marseille goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | <0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | <0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | <0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | <0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | <0.1 | <0.1 |
Top 5 scores
- 2-19.5%
- 1-19.4%
- 2-08.9%
- 1-08.2%
- 3-17.0%
Model panel
| Model | Bayer Leverkusen | Draw | Marseille | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 61.5% | 20.8% | 17.7% | 2-1 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 61.5% | 20.8% | 17.7% | 2-1 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelStatistical forecast
No reviewed analysis for this match. The probabilities come from the statistical model only and are not adjusted for team news. The team news below lists each absence with its sources.
Team news
Checked . Team news does not change the published probabilities.
Bayer Leverkusen
| Player | Status | Detail | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Tella | Out (injury: About a week) | Injury | 1 source |
| Kennet Eichhorn | Out (injury: Late November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| Guéla Doué | Out (injury: A few weeks) | Injury | 1 source |
| Eliesse Ben Seghir | Out (injury: About 1-2 weeks) | Injury | 1 source |
| Martin Terrier | Out (injury: Early December 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| Christian Kofane | Doubtful (injury: Doubtful) | Injury | 1 source |
| Moussa Diaby | Out (injury: Mid November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
Marseille
| Player | Status | Detail | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson | Doubtful (injury: Doubtful) | Injury | 1 source |
| Derek Cornelius | Out (injury: Early January 2027) | Injury | 1 source |
Markets
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Both teams to score
From the same score grid as the result probabilities. All Over/Under picksAll BTTS picks
Recent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
Bayer Leverkusen6th · 13 pts from 8 · 5 days' rest
- Won 2–0 v RB Leipzig (home), 20 Sep
- Won 4–3 v Mainz 05 (away), 10 Oct
- Won 2–1 v SC Freiburg (home), 18 Oct
- Lost 0–3 v TSG Hoffenheim (away), 25 Oct
- Lost 2–4 v VfB Stuttgart (home), 31 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Won 2–1 v SC Freiburg (home), 18 Oct, Bundesliga
- Won 2–0 v OFI Crete (away), 22 Oct, UEFA Europa League
- Lost 0–3 v TSG Hoffenheim (away), 25 Oct, Bundesliga
- Won 5–2 v 1. FC Nürnberg (home), 28 Oct, German Cup
- Lost 2–4 v VfB Stuttgart (home), 31 Oct, Bundesliga
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Bundesliga v VfB Stuttgart, 31 Oct
Marseille6th · 15 pts from 9 · 4 days' rest
- Lost 1–2 v Paris Saint-Germain (home), 20 Sep
- Won 2–0 v Troyes (away), 11 Oct
- Won 5–2 v Angers (away), 18 Oct
- Won 4–3 v Le Havre AC (home), 25 Oct
- Won 2–0 v Toulouse (home), 1 Nov
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Lost 0–1 v Olympiacos (home), 15 Oct, UEFA Europa League
- Won 5–2 v Angers (away), 18 Oct, Ligue 1
- Lost 0–1 v SK Sturm Graz (away), 22 Oct, UEFA Europa League
- Won 4–3 v Le Havre AC (home), 25 Oct, Ligue 1
- Won 2–0 v Toulouse (home), 1 Nov, Ligue 1
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Ligue 1 v Toulouse, 1 Nov
Head-to-head
These clubs have not met since 2021/22, the start of our results data. Meetings in divisions and cups we do not cover are not included.
What could go wrong
- A Marseille win at 18% is far from impossible: about one in 6.
- Team news after the lock can change the picture. The locked numbers do not move; we grade the forecast as published.
FAQ
Who will win Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille?
Our model makes Bayer Leverkusen the favourite at 61%. Draw 21%, Marseille win 18%.
What is the most likely score in Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille?
2-1 at 10%. The most likely Bayer Leverkusen win is 2-1 (10%).
Will both teams score?
Both teams to score: 59% yes, 41% no.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals 63%, under 2.5 goals 37%.
When was this prediction made?
It was locked at 4 Nov 2026 20:09 UTC, 24 hours before kickoff, with sha256 85d042587fec. It cannot be changed afterwards and is graded after full time.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling