Real Sociedad vs Lyon prediction: our model backs Real Sociedad
Quick answer
Our model gives Real Sociedad a 45% chance of beating Lyon at Reale Arena, with the draw at 25% and Lyon at 30%. The single most likely score is 1-1 (11%); the most likely Real Sociedad win is 2-1. Low confidence.
Match prediction
Forecast locked ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Most likely scores
1-1 is the single most likely score. The most likely Real Sociedad win is 2-1 (9%). A win is spread over many scores (1-0, 2-1, 2-0…), a draw over a few, so the single top score can be a draw even when a win is the pick.
Full score grid and top 5
| Real Sociedad goals by Lyon goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.3 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.0 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | <0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | <0.1 | <0.1 |
Top 5 scores
- 1-111.3%
- 2-19.0%
- 1-08.1%
- 1-27.3%
- 2-06.7%
Model panel
| Model | Real Sociedad | Draw | Lyon | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 44.9% | 24.6% | 30.5% | 1-1 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 44.9% | 24.6% | 30.5% | 1-1 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelStatistical forecast
No reviewed analysis for this match. The probabilities come from the statistical model only and are not adjusted for team news. The team news below lists each absence with its sources.
Team news
Checked . Team news does not change the published probabilities.
Real Sociedad
| Player | Status | Detail | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| Álvaro Odriozola | Out (injury: Mid November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| Luken Beitia | Out (injury: Back in training) | Injury | 1 source |
| Arsen Zakharyan | Out (injury: Back in training) | Injury | 1 source |
Lyon
| Player | Status | Detail | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moussa Niakhaté | Out (injury: A few days) | Injury | 1 source |
| Ernest Nuamah | Out (injury: About a week) | Injury | 1 source |
| Steeve Kango | Out (injury: About 1-2 weeks) | Injury | 1 source |
| Mohamed Ouédraogo | Out (injury: Late June 2027) | Injury | 1 source |
| Tyler Morton | Out (injury: Late November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| Loïs Openda | Out (injury: Mid November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| Pavel Šulc | Out (injury: Early January 2027) | Injury | 1 source |
Markets
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Both teams to score
From the same score grid as the result probabilities. All Over/Under picksAll BTTS picks
Recent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
Real Sociedad5th · 19 pts from 11 · 4 days' rest
- Won 3–2 v Valencia (away), 20 Sep
- Won 3–2 v Deportivo La Coruña (home), 11 Oct
- Won 5–2 v Málaga (away), 18 Oct
- Won 2–1 v Levante (home), 25 Oct
- Lost 1–2 v Athletic Club (away), 1 Nov
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Drew 1–1 v Union St.-Gilloise (away), 15 Oct, UEFA Europa League
- Won 5–2 v Málaga (away), 18 Oct, La Liga
- Won 6–0 v Lillestrom (away), 22 Oct, UEFA Europa League
- Won 2–1 v Levante (home), 25 Oct, La Liga
- Lost 1–2 v Athletic Club (away), 1 Nov, La Liga
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from La Liga v Athletic Club, 1 Nov
Lyon3rd · 17 pts from 9 · 4 days' rest
- Won 4–0 v Stade Rennais (home), 19 Sep
- Lost 1–2 v Lens (away), 9 Oct
- Won 2–1 v Nice (home), 18 Oct
- Lost 0–2 v Paris Saint-Germain (away), 26 Oct
- Won 2–0 v Angers (home), 1 Nov
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Won 3–2 v Crystal Palace (home), 15 Oct, UEFA Europa League
- Won 2–1 v Nice (home), 18 Oct, Ligue 1
- Lost 0–3 v TSG Hoffenheim (away), 22 Oct, UEFA Europa League
- Lost 0–2 v Paris Saint-Germain (away), 26 Oct, Ligue 1
- Won 2–0 v Angers (home), 1 Nov, Ligue 1
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Ligue 1 v Angers, 1 Nov
Head-to-head
These clubs have not met since 2021/22, the start of our results data. Meetings in divisions and cups we do not cover are not included.
What could go wrong
- A Lyon win at 30% is far from impossible: about one in 3.
- Team news after the lock can change the picture. The locked numbers do not move; we grade the forecast as published.
FAQ
Who will win Real Sociedad vs Lyon?
Our model makes Real Sociedad the favourite at 45%. Draw 25%, Lyon win 30%.
What is the most likely score in Real Sociedad vs Lyon?
1-1 at 11%. The most likely Real Sociedad win is 2-1 (9%).
Will both teams score?
Both teams to score: 60% yes, 40% no.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals 58%, under 2.5 goals 42%.
When was this prediction made?
It was locked at 4 Nov 2026 18:13 UTC, 24 hours before kickoff, with sha256 0793b8b83450. It cannot be changed afterwards and is graded after full time.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling