Primeira Liga predicted table 2026/27
Porto are favourites at 54% to win the title. Expected points, title and top-four chances and every finishing position come from 10,000 simulations of the remaining fixtures.
Predicted table
| # | Club | P | Pts | Exp. pts | Title | Top 4 | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 10 | 30 | 80.0 | 54% | >99% | <1% |
| 2 | Benfica | 9 | 22 | 76.9 | 32% | >99% | <1% |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 10 | 21 | 73.2 | 14% | 99% | <1% |
| 4 | Braga | 10 | 14 | 55.2 | <1% | 33% | <1% |
| 5 | Académico de Viseu | 10 | 20 | 54.0 | <1% | 25% | <1% |
| 6 | Santa Clara | 10 | 21 | 53.2 | <1% | 20% | <1% |
| 7 | Arouca | 10 | 20 | 50.5 | <1% | 12% | <1% |
| 8 | Gil Vicente | 9 | 14 | 47.6 | <1% | 5% | <1% |
| 9 | Famalicão | 10 | 10 | 44.2 | <1% | 2% | 1% |
| 10 | Moreirense | 10 | 14 | 42.0 | <1% | 1% | 1% |
| 11 | Vitória SC | 9 | 8 | 41.6 | <1% | 1% | 2% |
| 12 | Alverca | 9 | 11 | 41.5 | <1% | 1% | 2% |
| 13 | Estrela da Amadora | 10 | 10 | 34.7 | <1% | <1% | 15% |
| 14 | Nacional | 10 | 7 | 33.1 | <1% | <1% | 22% |
| 15 | Casa Pia | 10 | 7 | 31.5 | <1% | <1% | 31% |
| 16 | Rio Ave | 10 | 7 | 31.1 | <1% | <1% | 34% |
| 17 | Estoril Praia | 10 | 2 | 30.2 | <1% | <1% | 37% |
| 18 | Marítimo | 10 | 8 | 28.2 | <1% | <1% | 54% |
Sorted by expected final points. P and Pts are the table on 2 Nov, when the forecast ran.
Finishing position probabilities
Chance (%) of finishing in each position. Darker = more likely; blank = under 1%.
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Porto | 54 | 31 | 15 | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Benfica | 32 | 39 | 27 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Sporting CP | 14 | 29 | 52 | 4 | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Braga | <1% | <1% | 2 | 30 | 22 | 17 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Académico de Viseu | <1% | <1% | 2 | 23 | 21 | 17 | 13 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Santa Clara | <1% | <1% | 1 | 19 | 22 | 18 | 15 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Arouca | <1% | <1% | 1% | 12 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 14 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Gil Vicente | <1% | <1% | <1% | 5 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Famalicão | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 15 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1% | <1% |
| Moreirense | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | <1% |
| Vitória SC | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1% |
| Alverca | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1% |
| Estrela da Amadora | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 6 |
| Nacional | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 12 | 9 |
| Casa Pia | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 14 |
| Rio Ave | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 15 | 17 | 18 | 17 |
| Estoril Praia | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
| Marítimo | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 16 | 21 | 32 |
Movement this week
- Braga+2.1 ptsTitle ±0 · Top 4 +5 pp
- Moreirense+1.7 ptsTitle ±0 · Top 4 ±0 pp
- Arouca+1.4 ptsTitle ±0 · Top 4 +1 pp
- Marítimo−2.1 ptsTitle ±0 · Top 4 ±0 pp
- Famalicão−2.0 ptsTitle ±0 · Top 4 −3 pp
- Nacional−1.2 ptsTitle ±0 · Top 4 ±0 pp
Change in expected points since the run on 26 Oct, with title and top-four chances in percentage points (pp).
Frozen pre-season forecast
It was calculated on 2 Nov 2026 using only data from before matchday 1 (results before 5 Aug 2026). We started covering Primeira Liga after the season had begun, so no table was published before kick-off. It has been frozen since then and never updated. We grade it against the final table when the season ends. Frozen 71cd8896a796
| # | Club | Exp. pts | Title | Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting CP | 77.4 | 54% | 3rd |
| 2 | Benfica | 73.9 | 30% | 2nd |
| 3 | Porto | 69.8 | 13% | 1st |
| 4 | Braga | 61.6 | 2% | 8th |
| 5 | Famalicão | 50.4 | <1% | 11th |
| 6 | Vitória SC | 45.5 | <1% | 13th |
| 7 | Gil Vicente | 45.4 | <1% | 7th |
| 8 | Estoril Praia | 44.6 | <1% | 18th |
| 9 | Santa Clara | 42.4 | <1% | 4th |
| 10 | Arouca | 41.6 | <1% | 5th |
| 11 | Nacional | 40.3 | <1% | 15th |
| 12 | Moreirense | 40.1 | <1% | 9th |
| 13 | Alverca | 38.1 | <1% | 10th |
| 14 | Casa Pia | 37.1 | <1% | 17th |
| 15 | Rio Ave | 36.9 | <1% | 16th |
| 16 | Estrela da Amadora | 35.1 | <1% | 12th |
| 17 | Marítimo | 33.1 | <1% | 14th |
| 18 | Académico de Viseu | 32.4 | <1% | 6th |
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FAQ
Who will win the Primeira Liga 2026/27?
Our simulations make Porto favourites at 54%, ahead of Benfica (32%) and Sporting CP (14%). Even at 54%, the favourite misses out about 46% of the time.
Who will finish in the top four?
Highest top-four chances: Porto >99%, Benfica >99%, Sporting CP 99%, Braga 33%.
How is the predicted table calculated?
We play the rest of the season 10,000 times with the goal model behind our match forecasts, adding random noise to every club’s ratings in each run, and count how often each club finishes in each position. Expected points are the average final total.
How accurate is the pre-season forecast?
It was calculated on 2 Nov 2026 using only data from before matchday 1 (results before 5 Aug 2026). We started covering Primeira Liga after the season had begun, so no table was published before kick-off. It has been frozen since then and never updated. Its SHA-256 hash is public. When the season ends we publish how far each club finished from its predicted position, misses included.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling